Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Does running = winning?

Here's how much a team rushes relative to what % of their games they win (2008-2011 data)

1st column = % of yards gained through running (for the whole season)
2nd column = % of games won

10% 32%
20% 42%
30% 49%
40% 51%
50% 55%
60% 56%
70% 54%
80% 42%

Note: the first column is actually a range, so 10%, really equals 10-19.9%

Then distribution of teams across the rushing categories by number of wins.

For teams that have won 10 or more games:

1st column = % of yards gained through running (for the whole season)
2nd column = % of teams in that bucket

10% 0%
20% 7%
30% 30%
40% 27%
50% 28%
60% 6%
70% 1%
80% 0%


Then teams with 7-9 wins

10% 1%
20% 7%
30% 31%
40% 37%
50% 16%
60% 4%
70% 3%
80% 1%


Then teams with 6 or fewer
10% 1%
20% 13%
30% 39%
40% 26%
50% 15%
60% 3%
70% 1%
80% 1%


A quick look at this tells me that you can be a very successful team with running or throwing the ball. Although, a higher proportion of very winning teams run the ball more.

ND runs the ball more with Kelly than it did with Weis, but it in the mid-to-high 30%'s - within the range in which successful teams commonly are.

Also - one more cut of data, teams winning 12 or more games over the last 4 years:
10% 0%
20% 8%
30% 32%
40% 20%
50% 36%
60% 4%
70% 0%
80% 0%

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