I’ve tried a new cut of the data – looking at ND opponents based on their yppd “score” (I call it a score b/c it’s not only their yppd, but I adjust for strength of schedule). The results look like this:
Basically, above the x-axis is a win, below the x-axis is a loss. I’ve colored Weis and Kelly game differently.
What is interesting to me – looking at this, we look a lot better under Kelly than we did under Weis. Kelly has played a tougher schedule and, almost across the board, has done better across every quality of opponent. Consider:
- 3 of Weis’s 13 wins came across teams worse than any we’ve played under Kelly
- Kelly’s won ~80% of games against average teams (in the 0 yppd bucket), and is 4-4 against good teams (teams in the 1 or 1.5 yppd bracket… these teams typically win 70% of their games)
- Kelly has played 90% of his games vs average or better teams, Weis only 70%
Looking at these numbers, it’s hard not to see progress from Weis, at least for me. We are winning more games against better opponents.
Peeling back the numbers a bit more Kelly’s two losses against average teams (0 yppd) were Navy & Tulsa last year. The two losses against 0.5 teams were UM last year and USF this year. USC is in the 1 yppd bucket this year. UM and MSU are both in the 1.5 yppd bucket this year. Our remaining opponents are from average (Wake, MD are both in 0) to bad (BC is in -0.5) to very good (Standard is in 2).
If we beat Wake, MD, and BC, ND will have won all games against 0 yppd or worst opponents for the first time in 4 years. Which will bring us to Stanford, which will be our 2nd toughest game in this four year span.
One last interesting stat. Against 0 yppd teams, Weis teams scored on average 23-23. Kelly's teams have scored 32-19. Against teams in the 0.5-1.5 categories, Weis's average score was 31-29, Kelly's has been 25-24.
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