Some fun with statistics -
This year, 4 of our 5 games have been against familiar opponents (UM, MSU, Pitt, PU). Looking at stats from 2008-2011, this has been our best year by a significant margin. Looking at 4 measures:
1) Record
2) Points differential
3) Yards differential
4) Yards per play differential
1) Record:
This is our best year by one game. In the last three years, we’ve split games with these four teams, going 2-2 each year. Always beating PU, going 1-2 with the other three. This year, we are 3-1.
2) Point differential
This is our best year by a significant amount – we are +11/game. 2008 was +4, 2009 was -1, 2010 was +2.5.
3) Yards differential
This is our best year by a significant amount. +96 yards differential game. About 100 yds/game better than last year – with 10-15 yds due to offense, and 90 due to defense. 2010 and 2009 were pretty much the same (-5/6 yds/game). 2008 was the worst, -40/game. An interesting note - last year, only 15 teams averaged +96 yards/game differential or better.
4) Yards per play differential
Also our best year (and are running the ball more!). We are at +0.6. Up from +0.3 last year and -0.8 in ’09 and -0.3 in ’08.
So, all in all, by the numbers, we are looking much improved.
Additional analysis - are our opponents worse?
ReplyDeleteIt'll be hard to tell for sure until more games are played. I'd guess if you'd look at Sagarin ratings, you'd find the teams have improved.
But, for example, if you consider points differential and yards differential, they look to be better now.
So, if i average UM, MSU, Pitt, and PU together, I get the following for points differential (avg/game):
2008 (0.6)
2009 1.7
2010 (0.6)
2011 13.4
And then yards (avg/game):
2008 (12)
2009 6
2010 12
2011 77
So, while the season needs to play out (and their schedules will get harder), it looks very much like they'll be in the same ballpark.