Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Football fan commandments

Through our recent coaching changes – Davie to Ty to Weis to Kelly – there have been fan favorites of sorts that I thought would suddenly get more PT once the new coach came in – or that the reason they weren’t playing more was due to some sort of short sightedness of the prior coach.

In each regime change, very few (if any) players have come out of the woodwork.   I have now come to believe that coaches, almost always, will play the person they think will win games… as their incentive as coaches is to win, so they have no reason to keep an ace in the hole.

I’d go so far as to say this is one of my personal rules of football fandom – if a guy isn’t playing it’s because the other guy is likely better.  This rule takes some fun out of being fan – as it is always great to speculate that the next guy is really better than the first… and if that you had the next guy your team would be better.  But the reality is, this rule is more often true than not.

That said, I have noticed a few exceptions to this rule, or where a ‘better’ player is on the bench.  These exceptions are:
1. Consistency
2. Character flaws (on the player’s part)
3. Seniority (specifically, lack thereof)

Put differently, for a coach to not play the best player, they either don’t like the best player, want to respect a more senior player, or don’t know when they’ll get Jekyll or Hyde.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Kelly vs other top coaches

I thought it would be fun to compare the first two years of coaches vs the two years (averaging the two years) before they showed up across a variety of programs. 
A popular notion on this board is that great coaches make it to NC in yr 3, so I thought I'd take a few NC coaches (Saban, Meyer), and a few good coaches (Dantonio, Harbargh), and our coach (Kelly) to see how 2 year improvements would look.  I took 3 very basic metrics - Wins, Pts differential, and my favorite yards per play differential (adjusted for SOS).
Here are their performance, ranked by pts differential improvement:
#1:
Wins 1.5
Pt diff  111
YPPD  0.25
#2:
Wins 1.5
Pt diff  54
YPPD  0.95
#3:
Wins 3.5
Pt diff  47
YPPD  0
#4:
Wins 3.5
Pt diff  42.5
YPPD  0.35
#5:
Wins 1.5
Pt diff  26
YPPD  0.05
1: Harbaugh
2: Kelly
3: Dantonio
4: Meyer
5: Saban
It is worth noting that each had a different starting point for pts differential, here's what each coach inherited:
1: Harbaugh -165
2: Kelly +44
3: Dantonio +10
4: Meyer +101
5: Saban +96
You can make a number of conclusions from this data - but it's hard not to think that Kelly is on the right path, at least compared to what these other coaches were able to accomplish.